Zenless Zone Zero Inferred Probabilities
Version: v3.15.1
The published rates
Zenless publishes 9.400% base and 14.400% consolidated for an A-Rank on the agent channel, against the 5.100% and 13.000% that both Genshin and Star Rail publish, and that single difference changes how the banner feels far more than anything on the five star line does. The base rate is 1.84 times Genshin's.
The five star line is 0.600% base and 1.600% consolidated, the same rates we know and love from the other games.
Agent channel, published rates
| Rarity | Base rate | Consolidated rate |
|---|---|---|
| Five star (S-Rank) | 0.600% | 1.600% |
| Four star (A-Rank) | 9.400% | 14.400% |
The W-Engine channel is the weird one, at 1.000% base and 2.000% consolidated on the five star, which is the highest five star base rate on any banner in any of the three games, and 15.000% and 18.000% on the four star. Nobody seems to know why ZZZ is so much more generous here, and we're not going to pretend we do either.
W-Engine channel, published rates
| Rarity | Base rate | Consolidated rate |
|---|---|---|
| Five star (S-Rank) | 1.000% | 2.000% |
| Four star (A-Rank) | 15.000% | 18.000% |
Star-Studded Cast is the permanent channel and its numbers match the agent channel. We don't model it.
The featured rule
The featured rule in Zenless is the plain one, 50% on the agent channel and 75% on W-Engines, with a loss guaranteeing the next five star is the featured item and nothing sitting on top of that. No Capturing Radiance, no streak cap, and no Epitomized Path equivalent for W-Engines.
If you came from Genshin
Coming from Genshin the row that matters is the four star base rate at 9.400% against 5.100%, and most of the rest of what you already know is close enough to true.
Genshin against Zenless, mechanic by mechanic
| Mechanic | Genshin Impact | Zenless Zone Zero |
|---|---|---|
| Epitomized Path | 1 Fate Point, your chosen weapon by the second five star weapon | None |
| Capturing Radiance | Rate-up 55.000% of the time off a guarantee | None |
| Losing streaks | Never four in a row | Uncapped |
| Four star base rate | 5.100% | 9.400% agent, 15.000% W-Engine |
| Four star consolidated | 13.000% | 14.400% agent, 18.000% W-Engine |
| Featured rate | 50% character, 75% weapon | 50% agent, 75% W-Engine |
| Does a five star clear four star pity | No | Yes, we model an S-Rank clearing the A-Rank counter |
If you came from Star Rail
Coming from HSR it's a shorter list, the five star line and the absences are the same and only the four star line is different, plus an S-Rank clearing your A-Rank counter in a way nothing clears anything over there.
The words
A pull is a Signal Search, a banner is a Channel and the currency is Polychrome, and unlike the other two games the pull and the banner have different names.
The agent list holds seven entries, so the list-shape reading from the Star Rail page would predict 57.1% here. Untested.
What this does not cover
In addition to what we don't know about the official underlying mechanics (we do our best to guess at the model) we also aren't modeling some interactions at all because they're too intricate or because I'm too lazy.
Star Rail's Custom Warp isn't modelled, since designating which limited five stars replace standard ones in the losing half of the 50/50 makes the pool a per-player setting rather than a property of the banner, and the engine has no notion of a pool the player edits. Zenless has the same idea under two different names.
Zenless Bangboo aren't modelled. They're a third item class alongside agents and W-Engines, and while the engine can express a third class now, no Bangboo channel is built.
Zenless Exclusive Rescreening isn't modelled either, because three channels run at once with their own featured agents while the count toward the guarantee is shared across all three, and we have no way to share one pity counter between banners in our calculator.
The permanent banners are left out too, which is Stellar Warp in Star Rail and Star-Studded Cast in Zenless. They're the ones that never rotate, so nobody is really planning a budget around them.