Wuthering Waves Inferred Probabilities
Version: v3.10.0
The published rates
Kuro publishes one rate block and then prints it on every single convene in the game. All ten of them, event and standard and novice alike, carry the same six numbers. None of the three HoYoverse games does that, and it turns out to matter later on this page.
Every convene, published rates
| Rarity | Base rate | Comprehensive rate |
|---|---|---|
| Five star | 0.800% | 1.800% |
| Four star | 6.000% | 12.000% |
| Three star | 93.200% | - |
Those three base rates sum to exactly 100.0, which HoYoverse's never quite do. It's a small thing but it removes an excuse we lean on elsewhere: on the Zenless page we get to say the four star line might be absorbing a rounding residue from the other two. Here there is no residue to absorb.
The five star line is 0.800% base against Genshin's 0.600% and Star Rail's 0.600% on their character banners, so you are twice as likely to hit one cold. Hard pity is 80 rather than 90, too. Both of those are real and both are in your favour.
The Featured Weapon Convene has no 50/50
On the Featured Weapon Convene there is no 50/50 at all (this is the one thing to take away if you take away nothing else). Every five star weapon that convene can give you is the featured one. Not 75%, not a guarantee on the next one after a loss, just the weapon.
Genshin, Star Rail and Zenless all run 75% on their weapon-side banner and all three can hand you something you didn't want. If you're coming from any of them your instinct about weapon banners is wrong here, and it's wrong in the generous direction.
There's no Epitomized Path equivalent either, so no Fate Points and nothing to chart a course to. Which costs you nothing when the weapon was never in doubt anyway.
The Featured Resonator Convene is the ordinary arrangement: 50% on the five star, and losing it guarantees the next five star is the featured Resonator. There's no Capturing Radiance analogue, so losing streaks are uncapped the way they are in Star Rail and Zenless.
The four star tier is one mixed pool
A four star here can be a Resonator or a Weapon, on either convene. The Featured Resonator Convene can and will hand you four star weapons. That's one pool with both kinds of thing in it rather than two pools (different from how Genshin splits its four star tier), and worth knowing before you look at a run log and wonder what on earth a weapon is doing in there.
Kuro publishes one combined four star number and doesn't break it down by kind. We split it evenly between Resonators and Weapons, same as we do in the other three games, and that split is published nowhere at all.
If you came from Genshin
Genshin against Wuthering Waves, mechanic by mechanic
| Mechanic | Genshin Impact | Wuthering Waves |
|---|---|---|
| Five star base rate | 0.600% character, 0.700% weapon | 0.800%, every convene |
| Hard pity | 90 character, 80 weapon | 80, every convene |
| Featured rate, character side | 50%, plus Capturing Radiance | 50%, nothing on top |
| Featured rate, weapon side | 75% | 100%, there is no 50/50 |
| Epitomized Path | 1 Fate Point, chosen weapon by the second five star | None, and none needed |
| Capturing Radiance | Rate-up 55.000% of the time off a guarantee | None |
| Losing streaks | Never four in a row | Uncapped |
| Four star base rate | 5.100% character, 6.000% weapon | 6.000% |
| Four star tier | Characters and weapons, split by banner | One mixed pool of Resonators and Weapons |
| Does a five star clear four star pity | No | Yes, we model it that way |
The words
A pull is a Convene and so is a banner, which is a little confusing but it's what Kuro calls both. The premium currency is Astrite. Strictly you spend Astrite on a Tide, Radiant on the event convenes and Lustrous on the standard one, and the Tide is what actually buys the pull. We quote Astrite because that's what anyone actually budgets in.
What this does not cover
In addition to what we don't know about the official underlying mechanics (we do our best to guess at the model) we also aren't modeling some interactions at all because they're too intricate or because I'm too lazy.
Star Rail's Custom Warp isn't modelled, since designating which limited five stars replace standard ones in the losing half of the 50/50 makes the pool a per-player setting rather than a property of the banner, and the engine has no notion of a pool the player edits. Zenless has the same idea under two different names.
Zenless Bangboo aren't modelled. They're a third item class alongside agents and W-Engines, and while the engine can express a third class now, no Bangboo channel is built.
Zenless Exclusive Rescreening isn't modelled either, because three channels run at once with their own featured agents while the count toward the guarantee is shared across all three, and we have no way to share one pity counter between banners in our calculator.
The permanent banners are left out too, which is Stellar Warp in Star Rail and Star-Studded Cast in Zenless. They're the ones that never rotate, so nobody is really planning a budget around them.
What we do not model here
This game runs at least ten convene formats and we model three of them. Most of the rest are target selectors of one sort or another, where you pick from a list up front, and the pool becomes a per-player setting rather than a property of the banner (the same reason Star Rail's Custom Warp isn't modelled, and partly because I haven't worked out a clean way to ask you for it).
The Reverb convenes are the big absence. Starpath and Tideforge both let you pick from a list of limited five stars, which makes them structurally the same thing as Genshin's Chronicled Wish, and we don't model that one either.
Oh and Afterglow Coral is a real ceiling on what a chase can cost you, and we don't model it at all, so treat every number on the calculators as ignoring it.
Whether two Featured Resonator convenes running at the same time share one guarantee count is an open question. Kuro publishes that some convene types share counts with each other, and every rotation this game has ever run has had two or four or six event convenes going at once, never one. So this isn't a corner case, it's the normal case, and our calculators treat each convene as having its own counter. If you know the answer we'd like to hear it.
Banner data
[1] Wuthering Waves Wiki, Category:Convenes (CC BY-SA)
Everything on this page and on the calculators comes from a community-edited wiki transcribing Kuro's in-game panels, which is a weaker source than the other three games get. Those read an endpoint the operator publishes. Worth knowing when you weigh how much to trust a number here.