Honkai: Star Rail Inferred Probabilities
Version: v3.15.1
The published rates
Officially, miHoYo publishes 0.600% base and 1.600% consolidated for 5 star character warp. For 4 star it's 5.100% base and 13.000% consolidated. These are the same as Genshin's character banners.
Character warp, published rates
| Rarity | Base rate | Consolidated rate |
|---|---|---|
| Five star | 0.600% | 1.600% |
| Four star | 5.100% | 13.000% |
Light Cone warp 5 star is 0.800% base, 1.870% consolidated. 4 star is 6.600% base and 14.800% consolidated. These are not the same as Genshin's weapon banner, they're higher.
Light Cone warp, published rates
| Rarity | Base rate | Consolidated rate |
|---|---|---|
| Five star | 0.800% | 1.870% |
| Four star | 6.600% | 14.800% |
Stellar Warp = Genshin Standard Banner basically, same 0.600%/1.600%. There are four simultaneous character warps in parallel, each with its own pity compared to Genshin's two. Pity does NOT cross over.
If you came from Genshin
If you're here you probably came from Genshin, or at least play it, so we should clear up some differences.
Epitomized Path doesn't exist in Star Rail, so there's nothing that charts a course to a Light Cone you picked, no Fate Points and no 160-warp worst case. Losing the 75/25 just guarantees the next five star Light Cone is the featured one, and since there's only one featured Light Cone there's nothing to choose between anyway.
Capturing Radiance doesn't exist either, so there's no 55%, no conversion and no cap on losing streaks, and four lost 50/50s in a row can happen to you.
The four star line is identical to Genshin's at 5.100% and 13.000%, and that's worth mentioning because Zenless is where it stops being true.
The standard five star pool looks like 7 characters against Genshin's 8, so a lost 50/50 probably has slightly fewer places to land. And hard pity seems to be 90 on characters and 80 on Light Cones, same as Genshin.
Genshin against Star Rail, mechanic by mechanic
| Mechanic | Genshin Impact | Honkai: Star Rail |
|---|---|---|
| Epitomized Path | 1 Fate Point, your chosen weapon by the second five star weapon | None |
| Capturing Radiance | Rate-up 55.000% of the time off a guarantee | None |
| Losing streaks | Never four in a row | Uncapped |
| Four star line | 5.100% base, 13.000% consolidated | 5.100% base, 13.000% consolidated |
| Standard five star pool | 8 characters | 7 characters |
| Hard pity | 90 character, 80 weapon | 90 character, 80 Light Cone |
What this does not cover
In addition to what we don't know about the official underlying mechanics (we do our best to guess at the model) we also aren't modeling some interactions at all because they're too intricate or because I'm too lazy.
Star Rail's Custom Warp isn't modelled, since designating which limited five stars replace standard ones in the losing half of the 50/50 makes the pool a per-player setting rather than a property of the banner, and the engine has no notion of a pool the player edits. Zenless has the same idea under two different names.
Zenless Bangboo aren't modelled. They're a third item class alongside agents and W-Engines, and while the engine can express a third class now, no Bangboo channel is built.
Zenless Exclusive Rescreening isn't modelled either, because three channels run at once with their own featured agents while the count toward the guarantee is shared across all three, and we have no way to share one pity counter between banners in our calculator.
The permanent banners are left out too, which is Stellar Warp in Star Rail and Star-Studded Cast in Zenless. They're the ones that never rotate, so nobody is really planning a budget around them.